Depth ｜ Biden’s term of office is only over three months. Why did Blinken meet Wang Yi again？ How did the two sides talk？

On September 27th, local time, Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and Foreign Minister, should meet with US Secretary of State Blinken during the UN General Assembly in new york.

This is their fourth meeting this year, just two months after their meeting in Laos in July, and only one month after Sullivan, Assistant to the US President for National Security Affairs, visited China in August. According to American public opinion, this is also the last face-to-face meeting between the two men before the US election in November.

When Biden’s administration is about to step down, what kind of signal does the high-level interaction between China and the United States release so frequently? How did the two sides talk this time? Next, what kind of situation will Sino-US relations present?

Why does the US want to meet?

As the special representative of the Chairman of the Supreme Leader, Foreign Minister Wang Yi went to new york on the 22nd of this month to attend the relevant meetings of the 79th UN General Assembly and a series of bilateral and multilateral activities. The meeting with Blinken was scheduled for the penultimate day of Wang Yi’s trip in the United States.

"This is a working meeting between the two sides during their participation in the activities of the UN General Assembly, not a special meeting. Its nature, importance and achievements are different from the new round of strategic communication between China and the United States held by Sullivan in August. Judging from the situation in the past two years, it has become a routine and normal state in Sino-US relations to hold bilateral high-level meetings on multilateral occasions. "Wu Xinbo, Dean of Institute of International Studies of Fudan University and Director of American Studies Center.Point out.

It was the same as during the Munich Security Conference in February this year and the Laos-ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in July. This time, Wang Yi also met with Blinken "at the request".

"This shows that the Biden administration still hopes to maintain communication with China when its term of office has entered the countdown. On the one hand, it wants to avoid the turmoil in Sino-US relations and distract its attention from other agendas; On the other hand, it also hopes that China can solve some issues of concern to the United States, whether bilateral or multilateral, so as to benefit the United States. This should be the real reason why Blinken took the initiative to meet Wang Yi. " Wu Xinbo said.

From the Chinese perspective, Wu Xinbo pointed out that China’s policy toward the United States has maintained a high degree of consistency, and its goal of developing a stable, healthy and sustainable relationship with the United States remains unchanged. As the United States enters the sprint of the general election and the transition of power, it is also necessary for China to continue the momentum of high-level exchanges between the two countries and maintain contact with the Biden administration.

China and the United States have different concerns

The meeting was held in the office of the China Mission to the United Nations and lasted for more than an hour. The live video shows that before the talks, Wang Yi and Blinken shook hands and exchanged pleasantries in the sound of a shutter. Some commentators said that after some consideration, the arrangement of the location took care of the comfort of both sides.

According to the press releases issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China and the State Council, the two sides held "frank and substantive" discussions on a series of bilateral, regional and global issues. The State Council also used the word "fruitful".

As far as the content of the meeting is concerned, Wang Yixian talked about the hard-won progress in Sino-US relations in the past two years under the strategic guidance of the head of state diplomacy, and pointed out that whether the momentum of stopping falling and stabilizing can continue depends on the efforts of both sides; Later, some key concerns of China were put forward, including that the United States can’t always treat China with "two faces", that the United States should abide by the one-China principle, and that China resolutely opposes the US suppression of China’s economy, trade, science and technology.

Blinken, on the other hand, stressed the importance of using diplomatic means to control competition and discuss issues frankly, and talked about the US’s worries and concerns about the situation in Ukraine, the South China Sea and human rights.

"From the standpoint expressed by both sides, there are some differences between China and the United States." Wu Xinbo pointed out that China is more concerned about the US policy toward China, including the US’s cognition of China, the orientation of China policy and the tone of US containment and suppression against China. Wang Yi specifically mentioned his opposition to US economic and trade repression against China. In contrast, the United States is more concerned about some specific issues, including the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the involvement of American personnel in China, which reflects some concerns of the Biden administration on China.I hope to push China to take some actions.

As for the State Council’s view that the meeting was "fruitful", Wu Xinbo made two interpretations. First, the US and China discussed issues of concern; Second, the two sides may make progress on some bilateral and multilateral issues, including climate change and people-to-people exchanges. "China and the United States still have opportunities for cooperation in some areas."

In addition, the outside world is concerned about whether the first US dollar will hold a new round of interaction in the near future. "Next, it is possible for the two heads of state to take advantage of multilateral activities to hold bilateral meetings again, and both sides are also preparing for this." Wu Xinbo said.

There are structural problems.

This is the fourth meeting between Wang Yi and Blinken this year, and it may also be their last face-to-face meeting before the US election in November.

Standing at the end of Biden’s ruling cycle, looking back over the past three years, Sino-US relations have been due toThe "airship incident" has experienced a new trough.. Under the guidance of the strategy of the two heads of state, Sino-US relations have returned to Bali and led to San Francisco amid twists and turns, and the progress made has not come easily.

Since the beginning of this year, the two countries have maintained the momentum of high-level exchanges, including closed-door talks between senior officials in Bangkok at the beginning of the year.US Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State and Presidential Assistant for National Security Affairs visited China one after another.The two defense chiefs held their first face-to-face talks in recent years,A new round of strategic communication was held last month.But at the same time, the relationship between the two countries is still undercurrent.

Recently, whether a new batch of arms sales to Taiwan were approved, Japanese, Australian and Indian leaders were invited to a meeting in the United States to "fight against China", or dozens of China-related bills were passed in the House of Representatives "China Week", a series of negative actions by the United States were particularly striking.

Some public opinion pointed out that Biden’s administration tried to stabilize the momentum of improving Sino-US relations, but under the pressure of the general election, it could not show weakness to China, thus being seized by the Republican Party. It may release more tough information to please some voters.

How to treat the "two faces" of US China policy? In the context of the approaching general election and the intensification of the game between the two parties, will Sino-US relations be more influenced by domestic political factors in the United States in the coming period?

"This year, China and the United States continued the momentum of bilateral high-level exchanges last year, which is in stark contrast to Biden’s first two years in power." Wu Xinbo pointed out that it can be said that maintaining high-level exchanges has become a normal feature of current bilateral relations. This shows that both sides are willing to solve some problems, promote some cooperation and reach some consensus through contacts. If the two sides don’t meet, they can’t advance these goals.

"But at the same time of strengthening contacts, the two sides of the US China policy have existed for a long time. There are still structural problems in Sino-US relations. " Wu Xinbo said: judging from the meeting between the two sides, China is still concerned about the US policy toward China, that is, the US’s negative orientation towards China and its negative and even conflict-oriented policy design. If this problem is not solved, Sino-US relations will continue to deteriorate.

From this perspective, "although China hopes that the relationship between the two countries will stop falling, stabilize and make progress,tend to stabilizeThe momentum is still fragile and uncertain, and the progress made is still limited. In the last few months of Biden’s administration, this situation is difficult to change greatly. The spillover risk of domestic politics in the United States to the relations between the two countries may be increasing. "Wu Xinbo pointed out.

Looking forward to the future, "apart from focusing on the US election, it is worth observing whether the United States will make substantive moves on issues of concern to China, and whether the Biden administration can leave some positive legacy on its China policy." Wu Xinbo said that from a longer-term perspective, we should be mentally prepared for the long-term, complex and sharp nature of the Sino-US game, and at the same time actively grasp the plasticity and variability of the Sino-US game.

(Edit email: ylq@jfdaily.com)