After 12 years in charge of Israel, Netanyahu ushered in the ＂final trial＂ of his political career？

　　A smooth politician, a sharp nationalist, and the longest-serving leader in Israeli history — — Netanyahu will face a "doomsday trial" this Sunday on whether he can continue his political career as prime minister.

　　On June 2, 35 minutes before the deadline for forming a cabinet, Lapid, the leader of the centrist party with the right to form a cabinet, announced that he had reached an agreement with other parties and joined hands with six political parties, including the far-right party "Right Alliance" and the Arab party "Joint List", to form a Coalition government. On Sunday, June 13th, the Knesset will vote of confidence in the new government. If the vote is passed, Bennett, the leader of the "Right Alliance" as the Prime Minister-designate, will replace Netanyahu who has been in power for 12 years.

　　"Netanyahu has always emphasized the security kernel and stressed that he is relatively strong and successful in this respect, but it turns out that he seems to have overdone it, failed to achieve the desired results, and lost points internationally." On June 11th, Wang Zhen, a researcher at Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences and deputy director of Shanghai Jewish Studies Center, told The Paper at the press conference of his new book "The Belt and Road Country Study Report: The Israeli Volume", "Of course, it is not excluded that he will continue to be in power, but overall, I think his policy of playing with fire may have come to an end."

　　However, for the embattled Netanyahu, the battle is not over yet. This "immortal bird" seems to have decided to fight to the last minute before the new government takes office. Since the anti-Netanyahu alliance led by Lapid and Bennett only won 61 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, as long as Netanyahu can convince a member of parliament to "rebel", Israel will fall into another round of deadlock in forming a cabinet and continue to be the prime minister. However, if this plan fails, waiting for the suspect in the bribery case will be a career behind bars.

　　Dismounting Netanyahu is the only common divisor.

　　Israel’s current list of coalition governments is probably the boldest combination in history. Many people are former aides and cronies of Netanyahu. Apart from the far-right Bennett, there are also right-wing secularists, secular centrists, the constantly suppressed left-wing Labour Party and conservative Arab parties. The members are diverse in ideology, and they seem to have no other common goals except "Netanyahu dismounting".

　　In order to form a successful cabinet, all parties are willing to abandon huge political differences, which also reflects the anger of most people in Israel who have refused to delegate power for a long time. In 2019, Netanyahu was accused of accepting bribes, fraud and abuse of power, but he repeatedly used the "death-free gold medal" of the Prime Minister to escape the trial. Even if the parliament was dissolved, the right to form a cabinet was not allowed to be given to the opponent.

　　More importantly, people seem to be tired of the security issues concocted by Netanyahu. For a long time, Netanyahu claimed that only he could "protect Israel" and did not hesitate to incite people’s hostility. During Trump’s four years in office, he was even more fearless. Since the Palestinian-Israeli conflict resumed in April, Netanyahu seized the opportunity to try to change the passive situation after the failure of forming a cabinet. The 11-day fierce exchange of fire with Hamas caused more than 2,000 Palestinian casualties, but this time, Netanyahu failed to turn the tide, but instead promoted the grand unity of the opponents.

　　"Israel’s right wing has reached an extreme and reached an inflection point. It may not be possible to continue this madness." Wang Zhen believes that Israel’s elections have been deadlocked for many times, which is closely related to the increasingly radical claims of the Israeli right, besides Netanyahu’s deep corruption scandal. In this situation, the Rapids still have a good chance of successfully forming a government.

　　"What kind of country will it become in the end by expanding settlements and stimulating Palestinians? This has also caused a reflection in Israel. " Wang Zhen said, "People have doubts about Netanyahu, the topics he hyped, and the direction of Israel, which has caused the current political situation."

　　Washington post reported that some important members of American foreign policy institutions are also happy to see Netanyahu leave, and they believe that the recent developments are an opportunity to strengthen the support of the two parties in the United States for Israel. "It is undeniable that after Trump left the Oval Office, the situation in the United States was better." Martin Intick, the US ambassador to Israel during the Obama era, wrote on Twitter, "If Netanyahu has to leave Belfort Street (the prime minister’s residence), so will Israel."

　　However, it is worth noting that there are many political parties in Israel, and the Coalition government is often unstable in view of the number and different opinions of the parties involved. A piece of information in the "One Belt, One Road" Country Study Report: Israel Volume shows that almost half of the 34 coalition governments in Israel were dissolved ahead of schedule, which also makes it difficult for the policy agenda set by the Israeli Prime Minister and the coalition government to be implemented for a long time.

　　"The Coalition government is a very fragile government, because the right wing is so powerful that it can overthrow the government at any time." Wang Zhen said, "Therefore, it will not be easy to make some decisions on the sensitive policy of the Palestinian-Israeli issue. Without a strong leader, it will be difficult for the government to advance."

　　Bennett, a former defense minister, took a tough stance on the Palestinian-Israeli issue. He once said, "To establish a Palestinian state is tantamount to suicide for Israel." At the same time, however, the faction left more than Bennett still has the veto power, and the new government may not be able to take radical measures such as annexing the West Bank, which is more reassuring than the result brought by Netanyahu’s staying in office.

　　"Since the fourth Middle East war in 1973, Israel has been in a stronger position than Palestine. It is very difficult to return what was taken, so it is impossible for Israel to make a big concession. Without concessions, there will be no compromise, and without compromise, there will be no peace, so it is difficult for the Coalition government to make a big breakthrough in this regard. " Wang Zhen said, "But I think on issues such as settlements, they will exercise restraint and will not actively stimulate the Palestinians to stir up trouble."

　　The last days of Netanyahu’s political career?

　　In the last days of Netanyahu’s appointment as prime minister, his party Likud Group has stated that "the Prime Minister will be committed to the peaceful transfer of power". However, what has happened so far has not shown signs that he has given up. It seems that Netanyahu, who is in a desperate situation, is going to put all his eggs in one basket and launch a "Trump-style" counterattack.

　　"We are witnessing the biggest election fraud in the history of Israel. In my opinion, this is unprecedented in any democratic country." Netanyahu said in a speech to Likud party members under his leadership on the 6 th. Earlier, he also accused Bennett of treachery and created a "century scam." According to Axios, an American explanatory news website, this kind of rhetoric also incited some people. Before the parliamentary vote, many members of parliament were blocked by Netanyahu’s supporters and even threatened with death.

　　Since Lapid’s alliance with Bennett won only a narrow majority, Netanyahu can remain in power only if one member of parliament votes against it. According to people familiar with the matter, the Jerusalem Post revealed that there is still a 15% to 20% chance to prevent the formation of a new government. These people familiar with the matter said that on the evening of the 7th, the administration plan of the coalition government was leaked to the political commentator of Israel Channel 12, which proved that there was a "ghost inside the coalition", and after the leak that night, some clauses in the coalition agreement that could have prevented Netanyahu from "making a comeback" were revised, which was already a victory for Netanyahu.

　　"In many ways, many key elements of Israeli politics have remained basically unchanged in the past few decades. Sometimes some unexpected results in elections are largely just a repeat of history. " The chapter on Israel’s political ecology in the "Belt and Road" country study report: Israel Volume wrote. The Israeli media compared the current situation with the struggle between Sharon, leader of Likud Group, and Perez, leader of Labor Party in 1990. At that time, under the protection of bodyguards hired by Sharon, a member of parliament was hidden, so that Sharon could stop Perez from forming a new government at the last minute.

　　Now, Yarif Levin, Speaker of the Knesset, also played an important role in Netanyahu’s final battle. As a member of Likud Group and a loyal supporter of Netanyahu, Levin intends to arrange a vote of confidence in the Coalition government on the 13th. This decision adds one more day between the publication of the Coalition government guidelines and the polling day, with a view to shaking the minds of parliamentarians to the maximum extent. Not only that, Levin also specially scheduled the voting for late afternoon, so as to have more time to create tension.

　　"It’s not over yet." The Jerusalem Post quoted a source close to Netanyahu as saying, "He always prepares for the worst, and what happens behind him is far more than what we see. We’ll see you on Sunday. "